*DB Trial Update* - Its profitable‏

I've finally got round to crunching the numbers for the DB Trial.

 

Now for the newbies and those who have forgotten the DB trial was aimed at laying 2 selections in one race. Initially it appeared that the lay limit of 11 was best and this is what we went with over the course of the trial.

 

The trial ran from 3^rd May to the end of September and over that period it had its ups and downs.

Now the main reason I stopped it was to give us a chance to give it a once over and see if it was worth continuing with.

 

So what have I found?

 

Below you should see a table with the breakdown of the results

 

	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Total
7 limit	3.51	25.34	-4.66	3.6	-3.29	24.5
8 limit	-3.44	31.94	-8.1	5.3	10.96	36.66
9 limit	5.31	34.79	-17.21	17.25	5.61	45.75
10 limit	9.81	38.14	-40.26	23.3	13.71	44.7
11 limit	19.31	42.89	-43.61	10.45	10.36	39.4
12 limit	23.51	50.49	-47.96	19	-4.94	40.1

As you can see the most profitable limit overall was 9 closely followed by 10.

Now my biggest concern with the selections was the volatility. The month of June was good for every limit particular those with the higher thresholds. However those higher ones pretty much wiped out Junes profits the following month. Even the most hardened of gambles would find it hard to swallow that.

 

Now I decided to turn my attention to see if we could improve the 8 and 9 limits.

I must confess I was still a little apprehensive of the -17 in July for 9.

 

Anyway I preceded to dig a little deeper and indeed managed to eck a bit more profit out of our selections. Below is our improved figures.

 

	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Total
8 limit	0.56	32.04	-6.59	12.6	9.01	47.62
9 limit	9.31	34.89	-15.69	23.6	3.66	55.77

 

So how have we achieved the extra profit?

 

It would appear by excluding any races where one of our selections was a non runner we could add over 10 points to our profits.

As I said I'm not too happy about July on the lay limit of 9 but I think with an overall average of 11 points profit a month I'll leave it in for now. Don't forget people I've been providing these for free so 11 points is pretty good going as I've seen paid for services perform worse than this.

 

So what now?

 

I think I'm going to start providing them again. I'm planning on starting again in November so look out for them. I'm also going to try and stream line them a little but that may happen naturally with the jumps season and the weather.

Cheers

Simon